BURSON-MARSTELLER
Europa schuift op naar rechts
Uitslag Europese Parlementsverkiezingen 2004: Europa schuift op naar
rechts
In Nederland wint PvdA twee zetels en verliezen de drie
regeringspartijen ieder een zetel
Brussel, 13 april 2004 - Vandaag is een rapport door Burson-Marsteller
gepresenteerd dat de uitslag van de komende Europese
Parlementsverkiezingen voorspelt. De auteurs, Professor Simon Hix van
de London School of Economics and Political Science en Dr. Michael
Marsh van het Trinity College Dublin, hanteren een wetenschappelijk
model dat met 92% zekerheid de uitslag heeft voorspeld bij alle
voorgaande Europese verkiezingen.
De auteurs voorspellen dat de centrumrechtse partij (European People's
Party - CDA) samen met de liberale partij (European Liberal,
Democratic and Reform Party - VVD en D66) ongeveer 3% zullen groeien
en de linkse partijen ongeveer 2% inleveren (Party of European
Socialists - PvdA, European United Left - SP, Greens - GL).
Rechts behaalt volgens de voorspelling een zetelaantal van 358 en
links 296 van de 732 te verdelen zetels.
De liberale partij in het Europese Parlement zal waarschijnlijk op een
invloedrijke positie terechtkomen omdat ze met haar 73 zetels kan
kiezen tussen linkse (296 zetels) en rechtse (285 zetels) coalities.
Volgens de auteurs zullen CDA, VDD en D66 ieder een zetel verliezen in
het Europese Parlement daar waar de PvdA 2 zetels wint. GroenLinks en
de ChristenUnie verliezen beide 2 zetels. De Lijst Pim Fortuin heeft
een reële kans om met 1 zetel in het Europese Parlement te belanden.
Hieronder vindt u het Engelstalige persbericht naar aanleiding van de
presentatie van het rapport.
Voor vragen of een exemplaar van het rapport kunt u contact opnemen
met:
Ingmar de Gooijer
Burson-Marsteller
T: + 31 (0) 70 3624861
M: + 31 (0) 6 51351472
E: ingmar(onderliggend streepje)de(onderliggend
streepje)gooijer@nl.bm.com
Over Burson-Marsteller
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van de WPP Groep.
President Cox launches European Election predictions
- based on science, not opinion
'Predicting the Future: The Next European Parliament'
Brussels, April 13, 2004 - A major new report was launched today by
Burson-Marsteller Brussels predicting the results of the June 2004
European Parliament elections for all 25 Member States. The report is
based upon modeling undertaken by Professor Simon Hix of the London
School of Economics and Dr. Michael Marsh, of Trinity College, Dublin.
The model utilized has proved to be 92% accurate in all previous
European elections, and are based on a statistical model which is
comprised of three major factors: vote share in the last EU elections,
vote share in the last national election and which party is in
government.
The following predictions are made in the report:
42)- The 2004-2009 Parliament will be dominated by the centre-right,
with the European People's Party-European Democrats (EPP-ED) the
largest party, with about 285 of the 732 seats in the new parliament,
and the European Liberal, Democrat and Reform Party (ELDR) in the
centre with about 73 seats.
44)- The Party of European Socialists (PES) will be the second largest
group, with about 217 seats. However, the combined forces of the
three left-wing parties - the PES, Greens, and European United Left -
should be approximately 296 seats, making the left a realistic
challenger to the dominance of the centre right should it act
cohesively.
46)- On this basis an EPP-ED backed politician is likely to face
little difficulty winning approval as the next Commission
President. It would not, however, be impossible for a non-Christian
Democrat also to win Parliamentary approval as Commission president,
with the support of the centre and left.
48)- In the day-to-day legislative business of the EU, the ELDR will
probably be in a powerful position, able to choose to form coalitions
with either the left or the right.
Speaking at the launch of the report in the European Parliament,
President Pat Cox commented, 'European election campaigns are now more
and more about the real issues that have an impact on citizens, and
strengthening Europe's role in the world. These election predictions
highlight how the Parliament is becoming recognised for the role it
plays in policy development in the EU. We must now campaign on the
principal European issues which will define the future of the enlarged
Europe.'
Jeremy Galbraith, Chief Executive of Burson-Marsteller, Brussels, said
'The next European Parliament will be even more important to citizens
and business in Europe. The increase in power of the European
Parliament in co decision, the role it plays in the constitutional
debate in Europe, as well as its sheer size as a democratically
elected institution, make this election the most consequential
European Parliament elections ever. While I am sure that there will
be some debate about the forecasts of Professor Hix and Dr. Michael
Marsh for some Member States, we are confident that looking back on 14
June these predictions will have proven to be very accurate.'
Notes to the editor:
- Prof. Simon Hix, London School of Economics and Political Science,
and Dr. Michael Marsh, Trinity College Dublin, are leading experts in
EU politics and institutions and Elections. They have both published
extensively in Europe and abroad.
- Burson-Marsteller Brussels specialises in Europe-wide public affairs
and media campaigns. Burson-Marsteller is a leading global public
relations and public affairs company.
13 apr 04 14:16